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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the bend, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.