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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|