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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.